Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
